Normal or slightly reduced activity is expected for Tonga, Wallis & Futuna, and Samoa. A named tropical cyclone will always capture the public’s imagination – surfers or otherwise, but the reality is TCs are often fickle swell producers. In the Pacific Islands, please contact your local national meteorological service for information about how this guidance should be interpreted. Above average SSTs are also forecast for the waters surrounding New Zealand (e.g. Some of the decaying ex-tropical cyclone systems were also associated with high rainfall, damaging winds and amplified coastal wave conditions. Temperatures can rise to 30°C, but average 26°C in Noumea. Peak TC season in the SW Pacific Basin is usually from January to March. Significant rainfall, extreme winds, hazardous marine conditions and coastal damage are all possible leading up to and during these events. Individuals present in New Caledonia are advised to monitor local weather reports and follow all instructions as issued by local authorities (e.g. The outlook suggests New Caledonia should prepare for stronger cyclone activity. The Southwest Pacific basin covers 135˚E to 120˚W, therefore the forecast generated by NIWA extends 25˚ westward than the ECMWF forecast domain. Classification of synchronous oceanic and atmospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for palaeoclimate reconstruction. Be aware that New Caledonia can be hit by active tropical cyclones or storms, but such severe weather events remain unpredictable and relatively rare, mostly occurring between February and April. New Zealand should also remain vigilant as the season unfolds. Chappell, and J. Renwick, 2014. A new tropical cyclone formed earlier this evening local time, around 250 miles west of Vanuatu. And cyclone risk was likely to be higher in regions around New Caledonia, Norfolk Island - and to the northwest of New Zealand. The domain for the seasonal outlook encompasses a basin that is defined by climatological properties of TC occurrences rather than geopolitical or meteorological service administrative boundaries (Diamond et al., 2012). Find out more about our data sources. Part of the 2016–17 South Pacific cyclone season Meteorological history. The available information from international forecasting centres that issue global climate outlooks and ENSO diagnostics are integrated by NIWA’s National Climate Atmosphere and Hazards Centre. The Noumea, New Caledonia tropical storm risk chart above shows the cyclone season. Uesi may impact eastern Austrialia with … New Caledonia Travel Seasons High Season (mid-December to end of January, July and August): From about 15 December to 30 January, and even more so around the Christmas/New Year period, the islands burst with families utilizing school holidays in Australia and New Zealand, and with French people escaping their wintry homeland. The storm stalled west of Vanuatu over the weekend and weakened slightly. At present, sea surface temperature anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are cool (negative) while the central equatorial Pacific Ocean has recently been trending toward cool conditions. Near normal activity is forecast to extend from the Solomon Islands to Niue (including Fiji and Tonga) with pockets of below normal activity farther to the east (Samoa, American Samoa, Cook Islands). Cyclone season is November to May, but cyclones can occur at any time. Diamond, P.R. Cold season in New Caledonia brings daytime temperatures to around 75°F (24 °C)—less than ideal for beach-goers but perfect for hikers. Tropical cyclone Uesi will near New Caledonia on Tuesday. "Between New Caledonia and Australia - Queensland, in particular - usually we get pretty big seasons in La Nina years." Multi-model ensemble forecast air pressure anomaly (hPa), January-March 2021; red (blue) shades indicate above (below) normal air pressure; areas of below normal pressure in the tropics can indicate an increased potential for tropical cyclone genesis, Information about the dynamical models used. However, New Caledonia does experience a cyclone season from the end of November to May, with February to April being the most dangerous time. An overview of the multi-model Copernicus ensemble used to create the rainfall and air pressure plots can be found here. In addition, the subtropical jet and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) mutually interact and contribute to shear (which can disorganise cyclone systems) during extra-tropical transition. Expected TC counts are summarised for the Southwest Pacific (panel a) and island-scale and sub-regional locations (panel b). If an ex-tropical cyclone comes close to the country, there is a near-equal probability of it tracking to either the east or west of the North Island, and landfall of a degrading ex-tropical cyclone is possible. Mr Meke said Uesi was currently a category two cyclone with winds of up 95 km/hr. Near or above normal MSLP is predicted to the east of Fiji, particularly near and east of Samoa and American Samoa (Figure 7 & 8). On average, nearly half of the TCs that developed since the 1969/70 season have reached at least category 3 cyclones with mean wind speeds of at least 64 knots (118 km/h). The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE forecast: ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates 80% (near normal amounts) of seasonal accumulated cyclone energy, a metric derived from tropical cyclone intensity and duration, across the basin as a whole. TCO-SP (University of Newcastle) deterministic model summary. The cyclone season in the Pacific is usually between October and May, but cyclones can occur at other times. Tag: New Caledonia cyclone Yasa . Language; Watch; Edit; Pages in category "Tropical cyclones in New Caledonia" The following 22 pages are in this category, out of 22 total. Leroy, A., and M.C. The historic tropical cyclones tracks selected for this outlook that passed close to New Zealand indicate a near equal probability of decaying ex-tropical cyclones tracking offshore to either the east or west of the North Island (see Figure 3). This means that some tropical cyclone tracks for the coming season, if La Niña fully matures, may have straighter trajectories than normal. A southward displacement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is typically observed during La Niña and the model guidance is supportive of this shift. The area most likely to experience a tropical cyclone in the South Pacific is that of Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Niue and the islands of Wallis and Futuna. However, New Caledonia does experience a cyclone season from the end of November to May, with February to April being the most dangerous time. Difference between expected and long-term average, SE SWP (Southern Cook Islands, Society Islands, Austral Islands), NE SWP (Northern Cook Islands, E Kiribati: Line Islands, Marquesas, Tuamotu Archipelago, Gambier Islands, Pitcairn Islands). New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and Meteorological Service of New Zealand (MetService) formulated this seasonal tropical cyclone outlook, along with contributions from the University of Newcastle and meteorological forecasting organizations from the Southwest Pacific, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, MeteoFrance and the Pacific Island National Meteorological Services. READ MORE: * Tropical cyclone expected to form soon could affect New Zealand late next week * State of Emergency, issued in Southland because of flooding, extended * Northland drought: Schools might close if Kaikohe's water runs dry * Flooding rains drenching eastern Australia but none of it coming New Zealand's way. This seasonal outlook is for normal to below normal activity in terms of overall named cyclone systems in the region. Most historic seasons used in the preparation of this outlook showed multiple ex-tropical cyclones passing within 550 km of the country. For the coming TC season, the risk for New Zealand is elevated. Cyclones are usually formed from November to mid-May, though they are most likely from late December to early April. Renwick, 2013. This joint ENSO index is described in Gergis and Fowler (2005) as the “Coupled ENSO Index” (CEI). There is very good agreement across the dynamical climate models with regard to forecast rainfall, air pressure, rainfall, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Southwest Pacific. Two of the five analogue years experienced at least one category 5 tropical cyclone, which we cannot rule out for this coming season. Analysis of tropical cyclone track sinuosity in the South Pacific region using ARCGIS. The wage subsidy and retail: Which stores got it and who has paid it back. Figure 1. Learn more about New Caledonia’s weather and start planning your dream holiday. New Caledonia enjoys an oceanic semi-tropical climate with two main seasons: summer from November to April, and winter from May to September. Free phone within New Zealand: 0800 RING NIWA (0800 746 464), Copyright, NIWA. Last Update - October 15, 2020. NIWA says elevated tropical cyclone presence is expected in and around the Coral Sea and north Tasman Sea, especially during the late season between February and April. Even small tropical storms can develop into major cyclones causing extreme damage to infrastructure. Elevated risk of TC activity exists for New Caledonia, while normal activity is expected for Vanuatu, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea and Tokelau (See Table 1 and Table 4; Figure 1, 2 & 3). Developed by a … Meteorologist Ben Noll said New Zealand and New Caledonia are forecast to feel the brunt of the cyclone season. The South Pacific’s third major tropical cyclone this season is already bringing strong to gale force winds and heavy rainfall to Vanuatu, with New Caledonia likely to receive a direct hit later in the week. Advice. During the season the most intense tropical cyclone was Severe Tropical Cyclone Beti, which reached a minimum pressure of 935 hPa (27.61 inHg) as it affected New Caledonia. For Uesi, I think the impact will be greatly affected by New Caledonia." For the coming 2020/21 season, the deterministic TCO-SP outlook for Southwest Pacific TC season suggests 9 named TCs will form (probable range of 7-10), indicating normal to below normal activity for the basin when compared with the 1981-2010 average of 11.4 TCs (Table 4 and Figure 9). People living in Fiji, New Zealand, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and other island nations in the Southwest Pacific will have more months to prepare for tropical cyclones, thanks to a new outlook model published in Scientific Reports. Analogue, dynamical and deterministic model guidance for the SW Pacific show relatively good agreement for the coming season (Table 1). It's not yet clear whether any remnants of tropical cyclone Uesi will make it to New Zealand. Weekly statistical forecasts of TC genesis and TC activity for the SW Pacific basin are produced by MeteoFrance based on phasing of the MJO (Leroy and Wheeler, 2008). Reduced TC activity is expected east of the International Dateline. A majority of the historic analogues selected for the 2020/21 outlook (four out of five) indicate multiple severe TCs (at least three or more) that were equivalent to or greater than category 3 occurred in seasons similar to the present. Previous work indicates New Zealand interacts with at least one ex-tropical cyclone passing within 550 km of the country every year on average (Lorrey et al., 2014). Activity in general is expected to increase during the late season, especially for islands west of the International Date Line around the Coral Sea. South Pacific Cyclone Seasons aboard Green Nomad A major threat to any cruising plans is the tropical revolving storms that occur in most tropical regions during summer. Using the CEI, we selected analogue TC seasons for the 2020/21 outlook, highlighting seasons when the equatorial SSTs and the SOI were indicative of a transition from neutral ENSO conditions in winter-spring to La Niña conditions during summer-autumn. This seasonal outlook is for normal to below normal activity in terms of overall named cyclone systems in the region. In addition, subjective qualification of activity (and associated risk) also recognises the small differences between the actual TC counts for the analogue composites and climatological values. The ICU consensus column is based on the combined outcomes for the three aforementioned types of seasonal outlook information. A category 3 cyclone has mean winds between 64-85 knots (118-157kmh) with a central pressure 970-945 hectopascals, Fiji's Meteorological Service states on its website. NB: The ECMWF forecast domain for ACE is from 160˚E to 120˚W. Figure 3: Plots of TC tracks and major tropical lows that were monitored for analogue seasons used in the 2020/21 seasonal forecast for the full season (November - April). Categorisation of cyclones aligns to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) scale. Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda was an intense tropical cyclone that developed during the 2012–13 South Pacific cyclone season and affected New Caledonia and the Solomon Islands as a weak tropical cyclone. On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 550km of New Zealand each year. The chart was processed from data supplied by the US Meteorological Agency (NOAA). NIWA’s SW Pacific TC outlook spans four areas of responsibility overseen by international monitoring and forecast agencies (RMSC Nadi, the Australian TCWC, TCWC Port Moresby and TCWC Wellington). During weather events of this kind, sports activities are obviously strongly discouraged or prohibited depending on the official warning level. This TC count range overlaps with the analogue guidance. A potential combination of 3-4 cyclones may reach severe category 3 or higher status. An ex-tropical cyclone climatology for Auckland, New Zealand. There is strong agreement for above normal rainfall from New Caledonia to the Cook Islands, including most island groups in between (Figure 5 & 6). evacuation orders). The average temperate hovers around 20-27 degrees Celsius year-round and there’s an average of 345 sunshine days annually. While that doesn’t bode well for residents of the tropical nation, isn’t a bad thing for surfers residing on Australia’s East Coast. And in Dunedin, there would be fine weather until showers set in on Friday, with the temperature dropping down to a high of just 14C. These are called hurricanes in the North Atlantic Ocean and cyclones in the South Pacific. For Australia and associated offshore islands, please contact the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for information about how this guidance should be interpreted. By night, it can cool down to below 60°F. Four of the five historic analogue seasons indicate more than one cyclone of category 4 strength or higher could occur. Based on seasons with similar background climate conditions to the present, TC activity in the coming season is expected to be elevated around the Coral Sea between the Queensland coast and New Caledonia. Cyclone season officially kicks off on November 1st, but it's usually not until the new year that this kind of action kicks into gear. In addition, TC activity is expected to be elevated across the north-central Tasman Sea region, encompassing the maritime area near Norfolk Island and to the northwest of New Zealand. Level 1 alerts are in place for Boulouparis, Païta, Dumbéa, Nouméa, Mont-Dore, and Ile des Pins. However James said it's not yet clear exactly where the tropical cyclone was heading. Be aware: New Caledonia can be hit by active tropical cyclones or storms but such severe weather events remain unpredictable and relatively rare and mostly occur between February and April. The outlook for the region to the east of the International Date Line largely shows reduced risk overall, but small areas of increased TC track numbers clustered near the International Date Line close to Fiji. The dynamical guidance generally agrees with the analogue guidance for TC count and severity, but has two distinct clusters of above normal amounts of activity (Coral Sea and south of Vanuatu and Fiji). There is a clear signal for elevated risk of cyclones developing and tracking west of the International Date Line during the late season. To find past analogues that describe the climate state leading into the upcoming TC season, the conditions for May 2020 through to the beginning of October 2020 were examined for the tropical Pacific. The climatological relationship between tropical cyclones in the southwest Pacific and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Steering winds are expected to be displaced south of normal, which may lead to reduced shear and increased retention of cyclone strength in the north Tasman Sea upon extra-tropical transition. However the south of the South Island is still assessing flood damage after widespread flooding caused by torrential rain last week. The outcomes from this type of situation may include stronger ex-tropical cyclone impacts to northern New Zealand. Tropical storm (cyclone) and hurricane frequency (category 3 or higher): ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates a near normal amount of severe TCs. The spread for the estimated cyclone activity comes from the variation between five selected analogue seasons. Since it is farther south than most of the other islands in the South Pacific, New Caledonia generally has a very sunny, moderate climate. The system that was to become Cyclone Freda was first classified on … There is relatively low disagreement between the analogues for the total number of cyclones for this season, with the one exception being the 2007/08 season. Wellington would also have a mostly fine week, with temperatures ranging between 19C-23C. Elevated TC presence is expected in and around the Coral Sea and north Tasman Sea, especially during the late season between February and April. Last Update - February 10, 2020. Figure 9. However, it is worth noting that the 2020 October-initialised guidance indicates more severe TC activity than the October-initialised guidance before each of the last three TC seasons. This is the first year the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP) product is available and we have incorporated it into the ICU outlook to produce a consensus outlook. 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